Bourn to Lose

Michael Bourn as a New York Met?

What were once whispers that the Mets might be interested in free agent center fielder Michael Bourn have developed into a loud drum beat. There are two hang ups that seem to be keeping the Mets from locking up Bourn. The first is that they are unwilling to pay him $15 million a year and second, since Bourn is a Type A Free Agent who was offered a qualifying offer by the Braves, the Mets would lose their draft pick, 11th overall, for signing him.

Letting people think they are seriously going after Bourn is a good idea for the Mets. It helps them win the war of the sports covers in a winter where the Yankees were doling out one year contracts to guys who were All-Stars when I was in high school and were outbid by the Pirates for Russell Martin’s services. It’s also tells fans that ownership and the front office are interested in fielding a better team.

Actually inking Bourn to a three-year or, worse yet, a four-year deal, would be a disaster for the Mets. It sets back any effort to gauge what their outfield prospects can do, puts into stark relief the way the team handled the R.A. Dickey contract negotiation and subsequent trade to the Blue Jays and hampers the Mets ability to spend money if they become competitive in the next few years.

The problem is that the Mets weren’t very good last year and outside of David Wright, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy and a possibly more consistent Lucas Duda, this doesn’t look like a very good team on offense for 2013. The Mets won 74 games last year, 77 in 2011, and 79 in 2010. Last year, their run differential was -59.

Without Bourn, the Mets would open the season with Ruben Tejada leading off and a platoon of Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Collin Cowgill in centerfield. With Bourn, Tejada would slide to second in the lineup and the platoon would be relegated to the bench. There is no doubt that in the short term, this would be an improvement for the team’s offense.

But, by blocking Nieuwenhuis and Cowgill, two guys who have yet to play a full season in the majors and are 25 and 26 respectively, for a guy on the wrong side of 30 who gets most of his value from his speed, the Mets could be doing some long term damage. In three minor league seasons, Nieuwenhuis put up consistently solid numbers. In 282 at-bats with the Mets last year, he had a slash line of .252/.315/.376. Cowgill has put up less impressive numbers but has always shown pop and speed. When Bourn was 25 and with the Astros in 2008, his full season slash line .229/.288/.300. This isn’t to say Nieuwenhuis will become a Bourn type player, but if Houston had gone out and got a new center fielder, they would have missed out on his 2009 season where he went .285/.354/.384.

Bourn is 30 years old. Any multi-year deal will be paying him mostly for what he has already done. Not what he will do in a New York uniform. In 2011, Bourn led the league in steals with 60 and in caught stealing with 14. In 2012, his steals dropped to 42 but he still led the league in caught stealing with 13. On top of that, he strikes out in bunches with 140 in 2009 and 2011 and 155 in 2012. As his legs get older, his batting average will continue to drop as his loss in speed negatively impacts his batting average on balls in play.

Photo via CBC

At the last home game of the 2012 season, R.A. Dickey won his 20th game of the year. Just two months later, Dickey was traded away to the Blue Jays for a package of players headlined by catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud. The Mets traded away Dickey weeks after he won the Cy Young Award because they were unable to come to an agreement on a contract extension that would have covered the 2014 and 2015 seasons, seasons where Dickey will be 39 and 40. It wasn’t that the Mets were unwilling to extend Dickey, it was just that the sides were $5 million dollars apart. Over two years.

While they may not go as high up as $15 million a year for Bourn, they will have to go north of $10 million a year to make him a Met. Bourn isn’t a necessity for a team that isn’t going to be competitive for a few years. But Dickey, even if he didn’t replicate his 2012 form and in a winter where a pitcher like Jeremy Guthrie was signed to a three-year, $25 million deal, is a necessity. A team like the San Francisco Giants won with great pitching in the starting rotation and bullpen and an offense that didn’t overpower you outside of a few guys.

Before the trade, the Mets would have entered 2013 with a starting rotation of Dickey, Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Johan Santana and the possibility of uber-prospect Zach Wheeler at some point. Without Dickey, that rotation looks a lot less imposing as the Mets will need to lean even more so on Santana who faded post no-hitter and Dillon Gee who is working his way back from a serious season-ending injury last year.

The Mets let Jose Reyes walk, ostensibly because of their financial limitations, given their connection to the Madoff scandal and diminishing attendance. They haven’t been good in several years, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. With young pitching prospects and d’Arnaud and others, the Mets could have a competitive team in an NL East that looks stacked with the Nationals and Braves leading the charge, thanks to the second wild card playoff spot. In two or three years, a Mets team that is in the hunt for the playoffs will have Bourn’s sizable contract on the books. They will be paying a high price for diminishing returns if Bourn’s contract hampers their ability to improve the team with an in-season deal or off-season acquisition.

Michael Bourn is a good player. The Mets aren’t a good team. But Bourn will age and get worse. And the Mets will mature and become a better team that could get into the playoffs. Signing Bourn won’t help in that effort.

Speaking the Unspeakable

The 2002 Giants were built to win.  Kerry Collins had thrown for over 4,000 years, Tiki Barber was at the top of his game, and the defense wasn’t awful.  Sure, Big Blue finished second in the NFC East with a 10-6 record, but a four game winning streak to end the season had momentum on New York’s side.  With three out of the Giant’s last four wins against division rivals (including a week seventeen overtime win against the hated Eagles), it was hard to argue that Jim Fassel’s squad was going to make a legitimate run at the Super Bowl.

When Beach Bums Sort Of Kind Of Attack – The Sequel

MCU Park - Via Metsblog.com

This past weekend, the New York Mets’ Single A Brooklyn Cyclones opened their 11th season playing in Coney Island. They started the year by taking two of three from the Staten Island Yankees. In other Cyclones related news, one of their Beach Bums posted a comment on this blog last night, on the post where I called on the team to disband the “Beach Bums” dance group. Naturally, this anonymous “Bum” was not thrilled with my post. Maybe the Cyclones/Mets brass weren’t either.

Since I wrote that blog post almost six months ago and I think I can safely assume that not many folks are digging through The Composite’s archives on a daily basis, I wanted to respond to the comment from “Anonymous Bum” in a format where readers would be able to see her thoughts and my responses. The original post, with the comment in full can be found here, and my responses are below:

“First, I would like to point out that as a Beach Bum, we are NOT kids. Most of us are in our early 20′s.”

OK, most of the Bums may be in their early 20′s, but I wrote the post when the try out for the 2011 season was announced in January and the minimum age was 17. Hence,  I wrote “teenage girls.”

Second, I would also like to add that we are not allowed to dance on the dugout when the ball is in play for safety reasons….If your view was blocked at all during the game, then the girl sitting on the dugout during a live ball must have been really, really tall….Now, as much as I would assume you would love to see one of us get hit with a foul ball….

The rules may state that the “Bums” are not allowed to dance on the dugout when the ball is in play, but there were several instances last year where they had their backs to the field and didn’t realize the game had resumed. Or did continue to stand for a few pitches. Hey, my height is average! I go to the stadium to see the game, I don’t want to lean over on the person sitting next to me to see the play unfold.

Even sitting on top of the dugout seems unnecessarily dangerous. Baseball has been getting wise to these types of dangers by requiring First and Third Base Coaches to wear helmets. And the last thing I want to see is someone get hit with a foul ball. You do your argument a disservice by getting that hyperbolic.

….I think that you do not take into consideration that most sports teams, especially less popular ones, have dancers; because they want to attract people to the games, even if it be “creepy old me.”

Beach Bums in Rain or Shine - From Flickr

I gave some thought to this point and thinking back to all the different games I’ve been to in different sports, different parts of the country, and different leagues, there has always been a Fan Team on hand to make the pre-game, in between innings, and post-game experience fun for the fans. Heck, the Veeck family is legendary in baseball for coming up with attractions to bring fans to the ballpark. Of all the different teams, the Cyclones are the only team I’ve seen that have dancers at baseball games. While the Marlins may have dancers in “booty shorts and bra tops,” I still don’t see the value in having dancers in “skimpy outfits.” Maybe I am more of a baseball purist than I acknowledged earlier, but I don’t see why the team needs young female dancers in “skimpy outfits” to get folks in the seats.

When the dances are choreographed, the Beach Bums are required to refrain from “sexual” or “provocative” moves. If you find a few hair flips and hip rolling provocative, then I suggest you step out of the 50′s because, quite frankly, Elvis already paved the way for us a long time ago.

John Lithgow in Footloose - Via dvdmedia.ign.com

Thank you for making me feel like I’m doing my best John Lithgow impersonation from Footloose. You damn kids and your rock n’roll. But here is the thing, re-read my post. I am not stuck in the 1950s. In fact, my real issues with the “Beach Bums” are the fact that they don’t bring anything to the game experience. Was there a dance move or two I wouldn’t want a seven year old to see, yes, but I’m not going to get Puritanical on anyone here.

I thoroughly enjoy working for this organization and by belittling the promotional and entertainment aspects that we add to the Cyclones game day experience, you are only insulting the organization as a whole.

Alright “Anonymous Bum,” I am belittling nothing here. The Mets, Cyclones, and the leaders of the Beach Bums decided to put a product out for public consumption as part of the game day experience. I am merely giving my feedback as a ticket buying fan of the team. I don’t believe my critique is an insult on the organization as a whole. That is like saying, I blame the Beach Bums for the Jason Bay signing or the fact that the Mets ownership is drowning in debt.

The bottom line is this, “Anonymous Bum,” I like the Cyclones. I enjoy going to the games. I just don’t think the “Beach Bums” dance routines and attire add anything to the game. With that being said, if you are reading this, I wish you, the rest of the Bums, and the Cyclones the best of luck this year.

PS: if you are going to post something in public on the Internet, I would refrain from using the term “sort of kind of.”

Thanks for reminding me that I am usually in desperate need of an editor.

Contract The Mets

The Mets are a mess. This oft-repeated sentiment usally refers to the team’s play on the field and disorganization in the front office. This winter, it was revealed that the Mets finances are like the Oliver Perez contract: damn near untenable.

In 2010, the Mets on-field product finished fourth in the NL East, despite the fifth-highest payroll. During an off season where the team made no major additions, the Mets financial issues dominated the headlines.

The New York Times has done an exceptional job over the last few months uncovering the relationship and ties Mets owners Jeffrey Wilpon and Saul Katz had with disgraced financier Bernie Madoff. It was a long relationship that benefited the Wilpon and Katz families. Millions of dollars in fake Madoff profits went to Wilpon, Katz, and in turn the Mets.

Here is a quick re-cap of the last five months for the Mets organization since the team walked off the field at Citi Field, losing a 14-inning debacle to the Washington Nationals that went on for so long that Oliver Perez was the pitcher of record for New York.

In November of last year, Major League Baseball loaned Sterling Equities, the company owned by Wilpon and Katz, that runs the Mets $25 million. It still hasn’t been repaid. There has been no explanation as to what the loan went to or the interest rate or the terms. Little known fact about the MLB: the league provides each team with a credit line of $75 million. The Mets had already blown through that with no word on how or when they will pay that money back. On top of this $100 million from MLB, the team has $400 million in debt based on loan and bond payments, partially based on the cost of building Citi Field. A stadium whose naming rights were sold to a bank at the center of the Great Recession.

Madoff and Wilpon at Shea Stadium. Via New York Times

While The New York Times reports that the Mets have had cash flow problems for at least a year, it is a particularly ominous time for the teams finances. Reports out of Queens indicate that advance ticket sales for the 2011 season are in the toilet. Last year, before finishing fourth in the NL East for the second year in a row, the Mets sold 600,000 fewer seats. Things are so bad in Flushing that long-time sales staff have been let go and part-time employees usually hired to answer calls for purchases weren’t even hired this winter.

This stuff is bad. But in comparison to what was reported in late January, it is the least of the team’s worries. On January 28, The New York Times report that Irving Picard, the trustree for the victims of Bernie Madoff’s ponzi-scheme, announced a $1 billion lawsuit against the Mets’ owners. Picard is looking for $300 million in “fictitious profits” to be returned. The remaining $700 million, Picard argues, should be paid, in part, since the owners ignored warnings about Madoff’s business practices. This article, paints, a ghastly picture of the Mets finances in the wake of the Madoff fallout.

Citi Field - Build It, Inevitably You'll Have To Pay For It. Via sportsofboston.com

The lawsuit, which Picard, asked to have amended last week, in a move that could mean more charges are in the offing, accuses Wilpon and Katz of aiding Madoff by ignoring “red flags….Returns were almost statistically impossible….Willfully disregarded any criticisms of Madoff and simply buried their heads in sand.” Just standard operating procedure for the Mets at this point. Bullpen trouble, schullpmen troubles. It will be tough to do that now as a trustee’s powers in bankruptcy court are rather broad.

Recently, Moody’s lowered their outlook on the team’s bonds to negative, portending the possibility that the bonds would be further downgraded. They are already below investment grade. The New York Times explains that the lawsuit makes it impossible for Wilpon and Katz to move money from other ventures into the team, an action they’ve done in the past.

Mets Fan Haven't Gotten This Type of Baseball Much Recently. Via midwestsportsfan.com

The Mets, having already tapped into the MLB, who is a lender of last resort, have one of the highest payrolls, with many of the most expensive players untradeable, and costly loan and bond repayments coming up. The team announced earlier this year it was seeking a minority owner, intending to sell up to 25 percent of the team. Less than a dozen prospective buyers requested the right to examine the team’s finances, the first step in a long process. This is a team with little potential, lots of debt, owners who got rich and financed the team on money that never existed, facing a season filled with sparsely attended home games. And then what happens at the trading deadline? Will the team trade Jose Reyes for pennies on the dollar to save money? And in the off-season, will they remain as quiet as they did this past winter? The saying, the Mets are a mess has never been more true. The best solution is to contract this mess and have a pre-existing team move into Citi Field.

While the NBA and NFL have been at the forefront of collective bargaining agreement fights the last few months, baseball’s CBA expires at the end of this year. That is why Yankees owner Hank Steinbrenner told reporters this month that he is tired of baseball propping up teams in small markets. His beef, and he is not alone among big market owners, according to Ken Rosenthal, is with the luxury tax and revenue sharing.  Rosenthal has even reported that some big market teams want to contract the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays.

The A’s problems lie in their inability to move to Fremont until MLB redraws the Giants territorial borders. The A’s, despite their typically spendthrift manner, have the building blocks for another Billy Beane-crafted run at the AL West. The Rays, who have been a force in the AL East for the last three seasons and will remain so, find themselves in a far more tenuous spot in Tampa Bay. The team is playing in front of Expos-esque crowds, despite their recent successes, and they have little chance of getting a new ballpark in this economy. The Rays, with a talented young team and a strong farm system, find themselves playing their home games at an in-door stadium that sits near the Gulf of Mexico. Many have noted that Rays owner, Stuart Sternberg, is a New York native and has ties to the city.

Fred Wilpon's response to any problem - shrug. Via metspundit.com

Whenever the Indians trade their most expensive player in the last year of the contract or the Red Sox sign a small-market team’s free agent star, the party line is well, major league sports are a business. This sentiment always has a way of screwing over teams that don’t have the fortune of playing in huge media markets. If each team is a business, they can suffer from the same fate as any other business. And one of those possibilities is bankruptcy, liquidation, and folding up shop. The Mets, as a team, are mediocre on their best day. The Mets, as a business, are abysmal. $100 million in loans from the MLB, the lender of last resort. Another $400 million in debt and the target of a $1 billion lawsuit. Suffice to say, patching together a starting rotation in the wake of Johan Santana’s injury is the least of the team’s worries. What happens when the Mets sputter out of the gate in April? What if Jason Bay’s regression was for real? Jose Reyes gets injured again. Imagine an August where the Mets are keeping Francisco Rodriguez out of save situations so his 2012 option doesn’t vest. The financial peccadilloes of the team puts the Mets ability to field a competitive team in question for 2011 and beyond.

The facet of sports we often overlook is that if these leagues are business sectors, and the teams are businesses, there is a possibility that they can fail. And by fail, I don’t just mean in the win-loss columns. I’m talking about money-making ventures. In the early days of the sport, teams would fold and spring up every year. In some respects, we’ve become complacent and expect teams that are in certain places will always remain there.

Now imagine, MLB contracts the Mets and moves the Rays to CitiField. The Rays, with their stacked minor league system and well-managed front office would immediately be able to compete on a level on par, if not equal, to the Yankees and Red Soxs. There would be nearly 20 games between the two teams in the city. This would be a stupendous rivalry that would be great for both teams. Then consider the possibility for playoff baseball – a dynamic Subway Series for the right to get to the World Series.

The time is now. Bud Selig, make this the last year of the New York Metropolitans. The team isn’t getting any better, unless the DJ Carrasco signing was just the thing they needed to get them over the hump to the .500 mark. The Mets on-field performance is directly tied to the financial health of their owners. With each story released this offseason, the team’s finances become clearer and clearer. While guys like Hank Steinbrenner may worry about the A’s and Rays, one of the biggest financial headaches for MLB sits a few miles from Yankee Stadium. Moving the Rays to CitiField will give all those Mets fans and Yankees haters a team to root for that is deserving of their loyalty, money, and fandom.

The Winding Path of an Expos/Nationals Fan

There are a lot of great things about having your birthday fall the day after Valentine’s Day. One of the best is that February 15, more often than not, is the date pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Ostensibly, it is the first day of that year’s baseball season. Every team, in theory, has a shot at making the playoffs. There is always a host of players trying to make comebacks, rookie phenoms fighting for a roster spot and prove themselves, and big-ticket free agent signings, hopefully, looking to justify their new contracts.